Price Prospects Mixed on Higher Milk Output Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook | View Archive By Bill Brooks 2/24/2010 Mixed commodity prices for 2010 versus last month resulted in mixed milk prices in USDA-ERS’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report. USDA-ERS economists raised 2010 supply projections on the basis of a larger dairy cow herd. Domestic commercial use was mixed versus last month, as were exports. For 2010, USDA expects the Class III price to average $15.25/cwt., $3.89 above 2009’s price average. It expects the 2010 Class IV price to be $14.35/cwt., $3.46 higher than 2009. With the Class III and IV milk prices higher, 2010’s all-milk price is projected to be up $3.74/cwt. from 2009 at $16.55/cwt. That would be the third highest price on record. Department economists expect 2010 cow numbers to fall 2% to 9.015 million head, up 20,000 head from last month’s estimate. Milk per cow is now expected to rise 1.9% to 20,950 lbs., unchanged from the previous estimate. Milk production in 2010 is estimated to be 0.2% below 2009 levels at 188.9 billion pounds, up 0.5 billion pounds from last month’s estimate. USDA expects commercial use for 2010 on a milkfat basis to rise 1.4% from 2009 figures to 188.8 billion pounds, up 0.2 billion pounds from last month’s estimate. Commercial exports of milkfat are expected to be 4.8 billion pounds, 20% higher than 2009’s level, but unchanged from last month. Commercial use on a skim-solids basis is projected to be 1.1% higher at 168.3 billion pounds, unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. Skim-solids exports are projected to be 25.7 billion pounds, 13.2% higher than in 2009 and 0.2 billion pounds more than last month. USDA economists anticipate a negative 0.6 billion pounds of removals of skim solids and 0.4 billion pounds of removals of milkfat in 2010. USDA will release Commercial Disappearance tables March 2.

Bill Brooks 816-450-3265 brooksbv@earthlink.net

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